NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Preview
The first weekend of the NFL playoffs has arrived.
With only four games on this week's slate, it's harder to find the same type of advantages that are available throughout the regular season. Nevertheless, there are a couple of good betting opportunities that present themselves this weekend.
As always, I've linked each game headline to the OddsShark matchup page, which includes the betting consensus, trends, power stats and other items of note for each game.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina PanthersConsensus Line: Panthers -6.5 -110, total of 38
Public Betting Action (courtesy of SportsInsights): 54% on the Panthers, 63% on the under
Ryan Lindley is making his first career playoff start. It's no secret that Lindley is a steaming pile of garbage - 50.8 completion percentage, five yards per attempt, two touchdowns and 11 interceptions in nine career games (six starts). Those numbers will surely make your eyes bleed. If that doesn't look bad enough, quarterbacks making their first postseason start are just 11-22 ATS since 2002, via WalterFootball.com. I'll be shocked if the Cardinals can move the ball with any consistency this week.
The Panthers have looked solid lately, but quality of competition has been poor. Carolina has rattled off four straight wins entering the postseason, but it's fair to be skeptical when those victories have come against the Saints, Bucs, Browns and Falcons. Those teams finished with a combined record of 22-42. Two of those four games came at home, where the Panthers barely scraped by the Bucs and Browns, winning 19-17 and 17-13 respectively. Carolina's previous two home games saw them lose to the Falcons and Saints, although Cam Newton wasn't fully healthy in either of those contests.
The Cardinals' defense struggles against the read-option. Arizona's last two regular season contests came against the Seahawks and 49ers, two teams that run a lot of read-option. Cam Newton looks to be fully healthy now, and Carolina has the type of offense that seems capable of exploiting the Cardinals this week. Here's how Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson fared against Arizona in the past two weeks:
Week 17, Colin Kaepernick: 15/26, 204 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, no interceptions, 7 carries, 63 rushing yards
Week 16, Russell Wilson: 20/31, 339 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, no interceptions, 6 carries, 88 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown
The Pick: Panthers 16, Cardinals 13
The Play: I don't delve into totals too often but I think this number is too high. The Cardinals haven't topped 18 points in seven straight weeks, averaging a measly 12.4 points per game in that span. The Panthers have some pretty ugly numbers themselves. Their last five home games have seen them score 9, 10, 17, 19 and 17 points respectively. I'm expecting a low scoring game. Under 38
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh SteelersConsensus Line: Steelers -3 -120, total of 45
Public Betting Action (courtesy of SportsInsights): 68% on the Steelers, 54% on the over
The absence of Le'Veon Bell could be huge (obviously). Bell is listed as doubtful although it's been reported that his status continues to improve throughout the week. In my eyes, Bell is the most important running back in all of football. If Bell is unable to go, the Steelers not only lose the most vital piece of their running game, they also lose a running back that is solid in pass protection and a back that is heavily utilized in the passing game. The Ravens allow just 3.6 yards per carry and those numbers were produced without Haloti Ngata in the lineup for the last four weeks, so forgive me if I'm skeptical about Ben Tate, Dri Archer, and Josh Harris carrying the load for the Steelers.
#RoadFlacco. If you've read my previews in the past, you're very familiar with Joe Flacco's home/road splits. The difference hasn't been that drastic this season, but a five touchdown road performance against the lowly Bucs has greatly skewed the numbers.
Stat Home Flacco Road Flacco Road Flacco minus Bucs game
CMP% 63.1 61.1 59.6
YPA 7.5 6.9 6.5
TD 14 13 8
INT 3 9 9
Home field advantage is very important in this rivalry. 20 of the last 27 meetings between these two teams have been won by the home team, including both matchups this season and last season. Both of these teams are notorious for laying eggs on the road, so this really shouldn't come as a shock. In case you're not aware, Pittsburgh is the home team this weekend.
The Pick: Steelers 23, Ravens 20
The Play: I was really hoping to play the Steelers this weekend at -3.5 or less, but I can't find it within myself to back Pittsburgh without Bell in the lineup, or at less than one-hundred percent. If this game was part of a 16-game card in the regular season, I'd certainly pass, so I'm not going to force a play simply because there are less games to choose from this weekend. Pass
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis ColtsConsensus Line: Colts -3 -120, total of 49
Public Betting Action (courtesy of SportsInsights): 69% on the Colts, 64% on the over
Is something wrong with Andrew Luck? Luck was less than stellar in the month of December, aside from a decent first half performance against an abysmal Titans' squad a week ago. Some of this can probably be attributed to the Colts having wrapped up the AFC South, but there's still some cause for concern. Prior to last week's game, Luck had turned the ball over seven times in his last four starts. Indianapolis' offensive line has been a major area of weakness in the past month, which makes the Bengals a good matchup for the Colts. Cincinnati has registered just 20 sacks in 16 games this season, which means that Luck should have plenty of time in the pocket to connect with receivers downfield. Luck is 18-6 ATS in 24 career games at home.
Jeremy Hill has emerged as a legitimate number-one running back. Hill's last three games have seen him collect 395 yards on just 70 carries (5.6 yards per carry). He turned in a 147-yard performance against a Broncos' rush defense that yields just 3.7 yards per carry. Indianapolis has had issues defending the run (4.3 yards per carry), so there's definitely an opportunity for the Bengals' offense to move the chains via the running game. Cincinnati's running game will be critical to success against the Colts, as the Bengals are 2-3-1 in their last six games when Andy Dalton has had to throw 30 or more times.
The Bengals have the revenge factor working in their favor. Personally, I'm not a big believer in the revenge factor. I don't think that Cincinnati will want to win this game any more than Indianapolis does simply because they lost to the Colts earlier this season. With that being said, a lot of handicappers love to play revenge angles, and this would certainly fall under that category with Cincinnati having been annihilated in Indianapolis in late October.
The Pick: Colts 34, Bengals 24
The Play: I only consider betting against the Colts at home if I feel like the line is inflated or if they're playing an elite team. I don't feel as though either of those is the case this week. I actually think this is a pretty reasonable price with the Colts, considering that they have the superior quarterback and home-field advantage. Cincinnati played a big game on Sunday Night Football last week, and will have to find a way to get up to that same energy level against a rested Colts' squad. Colts -3 -120 (If this line jumps up to -3.5 or higher, I'd consider parlaying Colts ML with Steelers or Panthers ML instead of playing the spread here.)
Detroit Lions @ Dallas CowboysConsensus Line: Cowboys -6.5 -115, total of 48
Public Betting Action (courtesy of SportsInsights): 72% on the Cowboys, 58% on the over
Ndamukong Suh's reversed suspension is huge for the Lions. Detroit's defense is elite when it comes to defending the run. With an adjusted line yards value of 2.83, the Lions are a full 0.37 yards ahead of the second best run defense in the league, which is downright insane. If any team is going to be able to stymie the Cowboys' running game, it's going to be the Lions. This wouldn't be possible if Suh had been suspended for stepping on Aaron Rodgers' leg (twice), but due to a successful appeal, Suh will be suiting up on Sunday. DeMarco Murray has been held to less than 100 rushing yards just four times this season, and the Cowboys were only 2-2 in those games.
The betting public is all over the Cowboys. Dallas is a public team, and subsequently, there is always an overreaction to the Cowboys' recent performances. Dallas heads into the playoffs having won four straight games by double-digits, including a 42-7 massacre of the Colts a couple of weeks ago. Dallas could very well win this game by double-digits, but in order to attract equal action on both sides in this contest, oddsmakers are forced to inflate the number. Take a look at Dallas' home schedule this season and the closing line in all of their games:
Week Opponent Line
1 SF +3.5
4 NO +3
5 HOU -5
7 NYG -4.5
8 WAS -9
9 ARI -1.5
13 PHI -3
16 IND -3.5
As you can see above, the Cowboys were only favored by this many points at home once this season, and that was against the awful Redskins. Despite this line being borderline ridiculous, nearly three quarters of all bets have come in on Dallas.
Matthew Stafford is a train wreck on the road. I outlined Joe Flacco's road struggles above, but Stafford's road numbers are monumentally worse. In general, Stafford isn't very good but that seems to fly under the radar because he puts up decent fantasy football numbers. This isn't fantasy football, though. Detroit has failed to top 24 points in a single road game this season. They've been held to single digits three times. This won't be a true road environment since the Lions will be playing on the fast track in front of one of the least raucous crowds in football, but based on their regular season track record, points will be tough to come by.
The Pick: Cowboys 24, Lions 21
The Play: I can't get over this line. It's a little bit more reasonable now that it has moved off of the key number of seven, but it's still pretty ridiculous considering that Dallas was laying 3.5 to Indy just two weeks ago. The Lions' offense doesn't inspire much confidence, but their defense is capable of keeping them within this number. Lions +6.5
(This is the best available number at the time of this writing, but I'd hold out for a +7 at a square book like Bovada or Sportsbook.com.)
Poruka [Strana 5 od 21]
prosle sezone... Onim se ne mogu pohvaliti ni Pejton,ni Brejdi, tacnije niko od aktivnih QB-ova...
2/1 - 9,00
