With just five Sundays remaining in the season, there’s good news for all the fans out there: For most of you, your favorite team still controls its path to the playoffs.
But just barely, as there are 18 teams that can say for certain that if they win out they’ll be in the postseason, while 14 teams either need help or are already out of playoff contention. We’ve gone through all the scenarios, and here’s how it plays out:
AFC East
New England: At 9-2, the Patriots win the division and earn home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs if they win at least four of their final five games.
AFC North
Cincinnati: The 7-3-1 Bengals win the division if they win out.
Pittsburgh: The 7-4 Steelers win the division if they win out as well, because Pittsburgh and Cincinnati play twice. A 12-4 Steelers team would win a tiebreaker over either a 12-4 Browns team or a 12-4 Ravens team, which is why the Steelers control their path to the division title while the Browns and Ravens don’t.
AFC South
Indianapolis: The 7-4 Colts clinch the division if they win at least four of their final five games.
AFC West
Denver: The 8-3 Broncos clinch the division if they win at least four of their final five games.
AFC wild card
Kansas City: The 7-4 Chiefs still play the Chargers and Steelers and would win a conference record tiebreaker with the Browns or Ravens.
San Diego: The 7-4 Chargers still play the Chiefs and Ravens and would win a conference record tiebreaker with the Browns.
Ravens: The 7-4 Ravens still play the Chargers and Browns and by winning out would finish ahead of either the Steelers or Bengals.
Browns: The 7-4 Browns still play the Ravens and by winning out would finish ahead of either the Chargers or Chiefs, as well as either the Steelers or Bengals.
NFC East
Philadelphia: The 9-3 Eagles clinch the division if they win at least three of their final four games.
NFC North
Green Bay: The 8-3 Packers clinch the division if they win out.
Detroit: The 8-4 Lions also clinch the division if they win out, as that would include Week 17 at Green Bay, which would give the Lions the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Packers.
NFC South
Atlanta: The 4-7 Falcons clinch the division if they win out.
New Orleans: The 4-7 Saints clinch the division if they win out. New Orleans hosts Atlanta in Week 16.
Carolina: The 3-7-1 Panthers clinch the division if they win out. The Panthers play at New Orleans in Week 14 and at Atlanta in Week 17.
NFC West
Arizona: The 9-2 Cardinals clinch the division and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if they win out.
NFC wild card
Seattle: The 8-4 Seahawks clinch at least a wild card if they win out.
Dallas: The 8-4 Cowboys clinch at least a wild card if they win out.