4th down coaching decisions could prove key in Super Bowl
The analytically inclined Eagles have long been one of the NFL’s most aggressive organizations when it comes to the crucial fourth-down calls.
The analytics company has one of the best models for determining when NFL teams should go and when they should kick on fourth downs, using its win probability model that relies on historical play-by-play data adjusted for variables such as the strength and weaknesses of both teams, injuries and other factors.
That proved crucial in the final game when Pederson’s famous “Philly Special” call at the end of the first half led to a trick play TD pass from Trey Burton to quarterback Nick Foles and a fourth-and-1 conversion in Eagles territory helped spark the game-winning drive in the fourth quarter.
While the Chiefs did convert a key fourth-and-1 late in the first half last Sunday against the Bengals when Patrick Mahomes threw a 14-yard TD pass to Travis Kelce, that’s been more of the exception than the rule as Kansas City’s 12 fourth-down tries were tied for the second fewest in the NFL in the regular season.
https://apnews.com/article/philadelphia-eagles-nfl-super-bowl-sports-doug-pederson-073b1766709d32b3114714633d24aa91
The analytically inclined Eagles have long been one of the NFL’s most aggressive organizations when it comes to the crucial fourth-down calls.
The analytics company has one of the best models for determining when NFL teams should go and when they should kick on fourth downs, using its win probability model that relies on historical play-by-play data adjusted for variables such as the strength and weaknesses of both teams, injuries and other factors.
That proved crucial in the final game when Pederson’s famous “Philly Special” call at the end of the first half led to a trick play TD pass from Trey Burton to quarterback Nick Foles and a fourth-and-1 conversion in Eagles territory helped spark the game-winning drive in the fourth quarter.
While the Chiefs did convert a key fourth-and-1 late in the first half last Sunday against the Bengals when Patrick Mahomes threw a 14-yard TD pass to Travis Kelce, that’s been more of the exception than the rule as Kansas City’s 12 fourth-down tries were tied for the second fewest in the NFL in the regular season.
https://apnews.com/article/philadelphia-eagles-nfl-super-bowl-sports-doug-pederson-073b1766709d32b3114714633d24aa91