Conference Championships

gameday   

AFC Championship Game preview: Patriots-Broncos
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET, CBS

The backstory
The Football Gods are smiling.

In the fading light of a January day out west, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will meet again.

I can't help but wonder if Sunday's AFC Championship Game between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos might be our final look at these two quarterbacking giants going head-to-head with so much at stake.

Fourteen times they've waged war, with Brady winning 10 of those 14 matchups, including two of three in the playoffs.

They last squared off in a narrative-busting classic in Week 12, won 34-31 by New England. Eight weeks later, both squads look different.

The Patriots invade Denver without tight end Rob Gronkowski, a loss that has forced coach Bill Belichick to once again reimagine an ever-changing offense down the stretch. The Broncos, meanwhile, have been stripped of havoc-wreaking pass rusher Von Miller on a defense -- like New England's -- that can't afford another injury.

Under pressure
Peyton Manning, quarterback, Broncos:

The five-year, $96 million contract Manning signed with the Broncos in 2012 has only one successful outcome: Peyton hoisting the Lombardi Trophy on a February night below a haze of confetti.

Forget the high-flying offense, the scorched record books or the pre-snap wonderment. Manning's astonishing statistical achievements this season will mean little, in hindsight, if the Broncos crumble in January for a second straight year.

Manning's five losses at home in the playoffs are the most in league history. To be fair, he's played in more of those games than your average quarterback and his teams dropped those tilts by a combined 14 points. Peyton's clashes with Brady have also been tight, with six of their last seven decided by seven points or less.

Back in Week 12, Manning calmly guided the Broncos to a 24-0 lead, only to watch Brady and friends storm back for a three-point overtime win that saw Peyton throw for just 150 yards at 4.2 yards per pass on a cold, windy night in Gillette.

That comeback, the biggest of Brady's career, set the stage for Sunday's rematch. This time, it's on Peyton to alter the storyline.

Matchup to watch
Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount vs. Denver run defense:

LeGarrette Blount has rumbled for four-plus yards per carry in 10 of his last 11 games. He was barely used in New England's regular-season meeting with the Broncos (rushing just two times for 13 yards and a fumble), but Blount has become the workhorse du jour for a Patriots offense intent on attacking with the run.

Last weekend's winning playoff teams ran an average of 37.3 times, with New England undressing the Indianapolis Colts for 234 yards and six touchdowns on 46 attempts. Blount tied a Patriots postseason record with 166 rushing yards and came within one touchdown of tying an NFL record with four scores on the ground.

Blount has been running of late with visible power and burst, but the Broncos have grown surprisingly stout against the run. Denver ranked seventh in the league with 1,626 yards allowed, but that's partly the result of teams passing from the start to keep up with Manning's offense. After teams ran for 100-plus yards in six straight games against the Broncos, they've allowed just one team to do so since Week 13.

Along those lines, the Broncos have given up just 14.7 points per game and 120.2 fewer yards per tilt over their last three outings. During that stretch, nose tackle Terrance "Pot Roast" Knighton has been an unblockable behemoth, while first-round draft pick Sylvester Williams and veteran Paris Lenon have been a total load against the run.

If Blount can't churn out yardage and chew up the clock on Sunday, Denver will roll.

Mind-blowing stats
Neither Manning nor Brady has performed particularly well in conference championships despite winning records in title games. Manning has five touchdown passes, five picks and a 76.7 passer rating, while Brady has seven scores through the air, nine interceptions and a 74.7 mark. ... Brady vs. Manning features the oldest combined age of two starting quarterbacks in any conference title game since John Elway battled Vinny "And the Jets" Testaverde in the 1998 AFC Championship. ... Brady has thrown just 75 passes over the last three weeks, the fewest of any three-game stretch in his career. ... The Patriots passer led the league in percentage of throws completed to his tight ends in 2011 and 2012, but was dead last in that category in 2013. ... The Broncos are the first team in NFL history to have five players with 10-plus touchdowns and four players with 10-plus receiving touchdowns.

Prediction
Drowning in the white noise surrounding Manning vs. Brady, we tend to forget: There's much more going on here.

One-hundred and four other players and two coaching staffs will factor into a game that settles the AFC.

The Broncos are the clear favorites, but when we made our Super Bowl picks way back in August, I chose the Patriots to topple the Seahawks. Five months later, I still trust the combination of Brady and Belichick to deliver New England to the promised land.

New England Patriots 38, Denver Broncos 35 (OT)

bas bold prediction...

NFC Championship Game preview: 49ers-Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, Fox

The backstory
The 49ers have the NFL's longest active winning streak at eight games. They arguably are the NFL's most complete team, with the most victories and the stingiest defense since Week 4. The offense has hit its stride over the last five games, scoring at least 23 points each week and turning the ball over just one time. Jim Harbaugh's squad is also the best road team in the league (8-2 combined regular-season and playoff record).

The Seahawks counteract the 49ers' road prowess with the best home-field advantage in football. They are 16-1 with a league-leading plus-26 turnover differential and an average score of 29-13 in Seattle since drafting Russell Wilson in 2012. In contrast to his conference championship opponent, Pete Carroll's club peaked around Thanksgiving and has been misfiring on offense since.

Since Colin Kaepernick entered the starting lineup in the middle of the 2012 season, these teams have met three times. The home team has won each time. The Seahawks hold a commanding 88-35 edge in points.

Under pressure
Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks:

Coming off one of the most impressive performances of his career in a dismantling of Rob Ryan's Saints defense in Week 13, Wilson emerged as Peyton Manning's toughest MVP competition in early December. It's been all downhill since then.

Wilson's aerial attack unmistakably is ailing. He hasn't thrown multiple touchdown passes in one game since that first Saints blowout. Over that span, his passer rating is 31.1 points lower and he's averaging 65.1 fewer yards per game. Meanwhile, the offense is averaging 8.3 fewer points per game and nearly 100 fewer net yards per contest.

With Percy Harvin (concussion) ruled out, Golden Tate coming off his least effective game of the season and the offensive line continuing to struggle in protection, there's little reason to believe Wilson will recapture midseason form against the NFL's best defense over the past three months.

Matchup to watch
49ers' passing game versus Seahawks' secondary:

Kaepernick has turned his season around since Michael Crabtree's return, recording eight consecutive wins while posting a 100.0 passer rating and an impressive 12:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's an even bigger threat to run in the postseason. While his numbers have improved significantly as the season has progressed, Kaepernick remains a developing field reader, often failing to recognize open receivers.

Kaepernick's struggles to get past his first couple of progressions bodes poorly in a matchup against a historically great Seahawks secondary. In addition to leading the league in total defense and turnovers, Dan Quinn's defense is just the fourth in NFL history to rank No. 1 in both interceptions and pass yards allowed. The other three wound up in the Super Bowl.

Seattle's Richard Sherman (47.3) and Byron Maxwell (47. were first and second among all cornerbacks in opposing passer rating this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Sherman's 57 passes defensed since 2011 lead the league even though quarterbacks have avoided him more than any other player at his position. Fellow Defensive Player of the Year candidate Earl Thomas' freakish range functions as a one-man safety net, allowing strong safety Kam Chancellor to play closer to the line of scrimmage.

Kaepernick has started 28 NFL games. He's thrown over one-third of his career interceptions (14) in three of those games versus the Seahawks. Advantage: Seattle.

Mind-blowing stats
Kaepernick's three postseason victories on the road (3-0) are more than Joe Montana (1-3) and Steve Young (0-3) managed combined. ... Patrick Willis is one of just 15 players in NFL history make the Pro Bowl in each of his first seven seasons. ... Aldon Smith is the NFL's career leader for most sacks per game (0.98). ... Since 2009, only six players have a higher drop rate than "best catcher ever" Michael Crabtree's 5.86 percentage. On the flip side, the 49ers are 7-0 with Crabtree in the lineup this season. ... Since 2009, Calvin Johnson (52) is the only player with more combined regular-season and postseason touchdown catches than Vernon Davis (51). ... Since 2009, Anquan Boldin ranks first in postseason receptions (49) and receiving yards (790). His his six touchdowns are second only to Davis' seven. ... Harbaugh needs one more playoff victory to tie Washington Redskins legend Joe Gibbs for most in NFL history (six) through three seasons as an NFL head coach.

Marshawn Lynch has averaged 23 rushes for 98 yards (4.3 YPC) in his last five games versus the 49ers. He boasts four of the top six rushing performances against the 49ers since Harbaugh became head coach. ... Russell Wilson is the only player in NFL history with a 100.0-plus passer rating in each of his first two seasons. ... Seattle is 4-1 against NFC playoff teams this year, outscoring those opponents 115-51. ... Kaepernick's 2013 passer rating was 91.6, but just 41.7 versus the Seahawks.

Prediction
These two NFC West superpowers have been mirror images of each other since Harbaugh began roaming the sideline opposite Carroll. This game matches the only two teams in the NFL that rushed the ball on over 50.0 percent of their offensive plays this season. Both teams boast hard-hitting, swarming defenses complemented by ball-control offenses. Recent matchup history suggests the Seahawks have the 49ers' number. Momentum suggests the 49ers are the slightly better team. In a tight game, I believe the difference could come down to Seattle's penchant for forcing game-changing turnovers at a raucous CenturyLink Field.

Seattle Seahawks 20, San Francisco 49ers 17

Aj prevedi to, pa okaci na portal

Peyton Manning ::gameday   

Vaistinu gameday

penban ::Aj prevedi to, pa okaci na portal

necu hleb da ti uzimam, treba da se zenis

Peyton Manning ::

penban ::Aj prevedi to, pa okaci na portal

necu hleb da ti uzimam, treba da se zenis

Mladini imaju para kao pljeve, oni sve finansiraju pa slobodno prevodi i kaci

ako stignem prevescu,mada sumnjam,u guzvi sam...
probacu bar prvi,posto Freak pise za ovaj drugi mec

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks: The Legion of the 12th Man
  

Ameri su majstori za ovakve stvari.
Kad ce vise 21h  :bounce: 

ja cu malo kasniti na prvi meč jer radim do 21h. Oko 21:20 stizem, valjda nista se nece desiti

ja bas ni ne zelim da dodje vreme za tekme, malo mi zao sto zavrsavamo za ovu sezonu

videcemo veceras da li je DEN uspeo da nauci nesto iz prosle sezone ili ne, nije velika razlika ili pobednici ili luzeri, nadam se da ce biti ovo prvo

samo mi bas kasno ide SEA ... valjda cu izdrzati... litrak kafe... par energetskih...

pa i ako pejton izgubi utakmicu opet ima sledeca sezona

ali svakako bi bilo najlepse da uzmemo i ove i sledece godine prsten

Najlepše da Pejton više nikada ne uzme prsten i da ostane lošiji od mlađeg mu burazera

FdS ::Najlepše da Pejton više nikada ne uzme prsten i da ostane lošiji od mlađeg mu burazera

Protiv ovoga nemam nista protiv

najlepse je da Pajser izgubi a da ga usput isprebijaju tako da sutra odluci da se penzionise.

Sve Potkovica postali Konjici

Za mene bi bila prava nocna mora ako SB bude Denver-SF.

U tom slucaju,ozbiljno bih razmislio da prvi put u zivotu propustim gledanje SB.

bas nocna mora

dr.dule ::najlepse je da Pajser izgubi a da ga usput isprebijaju tako da sutra odluci da se penzionise.

Jes' bogme. A mogao bi i Filip u tom slučaju da promeni nick

niko ne izgleda tako lepo kada je sekovan nego Pajser. ta njegova njuska ima neki zenski izraz tada