Breaking Down the 2014 WR Free Agent Market
Eric Decker
His two-year-average with Peyton Manning at the helm: 86 receptions, 1176 yards and 12 TDs. His 2-year average before Peyton arrived: 25 receptions, 359 yards, 4.5 TD.
Is Decker a product of Peyton Manning or an elite NFL wideout? The answer probably lies somewhere in between. The above numbers are a bit skewed, as Decker played only 140 snaps in his rookie year (2010) and scored 8 TDs with Tim Tebow throwing him the ball in 2011.
I recently heard Decker described as “a #2 WR that will be paid like a #1”—a statement I agree with. He’ll almost certainly be the highest paid FA WR in 2014. Working in his favor is his agent–the talented Todd France. France negotiated Ray Rice’s 5 year/$35 million extension before the 2012 season—a deal that looks like a win for Rice after his down 2013. Look for France to get Decker top dollar in 2014, surpassing Mike Wallace’s deal in the process.
Contact Prediction: Free agents are often weary about playing in Cleveland, but I think the Browns will offer Decker the most money to play beside Josh Gordon. Browns for 5 years/$62 million ($25-$30 million guaranteed).
Jeremy Maclin
The Eagles’ 2009 first rounder caught an awful break when he tore his ACL on the first day of training camp, forcing him to miss the entire 2013 season as he entered his contract year. If this injury didn’t occur, the Eagles would likely be in the process of locking Maclin up long-term right now.
Contact Prediction: I see Maclin resigning with Chip Kelly and the Eagles on a 1-year deal. This makes sense for both team and player—the Eagles will probably be weary of Maclin’s health, while Maclin will likely want to reestablish his value and hit it big in 2015 free agency. Eagles for 1 year/$ 5 million
Hakeem Nicks
The oft-injured Nicks could not have had a worse contract year, failing to reach the endzone. But he is just 2 years removed from his 76 catch-1,192 yard-7 TD campaign where he helped carry the Giants to a Super Bowl victory (Nicks averaged 7-110 yards-1 in the Giants four playoff wins).
Nicks turned 26 years old last month. While it’s conceivable he could also accept a 1-year pact to reestablish his value, it’s likely one team will take a chance and pay up.
Contact Prediction: I could see him going to Detroit, who lacks a legitimate threat opposite Calvin Johnson. Though their cap situation is a mess right now, Lions GM Martin Mayhew is in win-now mode. Lions for 3 years/$30 million ($13 million guaranteed).
Julian Edelman
Edelman is the biggest wild card at the WR position on the open market. Finally getting a chance to play a legitimate number of snaps, Edelman caught 121 balls for 1,221 yards and 7 TD (including the Pats two playoff games). Less than 6 feet tall, the fact that Edelman plays many of his snaps in the slot decreases his value. However, his talent in the return game gives his value a boost.
The Pats aren’t flushed with cap space, and based on the history of how New England operates in the offseason it’s likely that Edelman ends up elsewhere.
Contact Prediction: A recent rumor listed Houston as a potential landing spot (Bill O’Brien was the former Patriots OC). Texans for 5 years/$25 million ($12 million guaranteed)
Anquan Boldin
Even at 33, Boldin proved his worth in San Francisco (85-1179-7 line). Entering his 12th season, you’d think Boldin would want to play for a contender in a situation that suits his skill set.
Contact Prediction: San Francisco’s roster is as talented as any in football and Boldin had a nice rep-ore with Colin Kaepernick. My guess is that he stays in the Bay area on a 2-year deal. 49ers for 2 years/$12 million
Golden Tate
Some front office execs will be turned off by the 5’10 Tate, who lacks supreme size and speed for the WR position.
Others will see him as a precise route-runner with big-play ability.
Tate said yesterday that he’d be willing to take slightly less to stay in Seattle. But with Percy Harvin returning to full health and the Seahwks’ need to lock up Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman and Russell Wilson in the near future, Tate’s time in Seattle is almost certainly done. He should receive a deal in the same range as Julian Edelman’s.
Contact Prediction: The Jets—who will have nothing at the WR position after they let Santonio Holmes walk—are a possible destination. Gang Green has over $20 million in projected cap space and a bunch of talent on defense, so signing a WR should be a priority. Jets for 5 years/$25 million ($12 million guaranteed)
James Jones
With Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jarrett Boykin and plenty of holes to fill on defense, it’d surprise me of Green Bay made much of an attempt to resign the soon-to-be 30-year-old.
Jones signed a 3-year deal worth almost $10 million after the Packers 2010 Super Bowl run, as the market for Jones’ services was dry. Now 3 years older, Jones’ market will have even less suitors, and he’ll surely get less than that this time around.
Contact Prediction: As I just mentioned, the Jets have next to nothing at the WR position, so they could conceivably bring in more than one wideout. Jets for 2 years/$6 million
izvor
http://overthecap.com/breaking-2014-wr-free-agent-market/